Patterns of Potential Human Progress
The Patterns of Potential Human Progress (PPHP) series is the flagship publication of the Pardee Institute. Conceptualized and funded by Frederick S. Pardee, the series uses the International Futures (IFs) modeling system to explore prospects for human development by country, region, and globally to the year 2060. Each volume in the series considers a key aspect of human development, how that aspect has evolved globally and locally over time, how it appears it might unfold over coming decades in a Base Case scenario, how we might prefer it to evolve, and how we can better ensure that it moves in desired directions going forward.
-
PPHP 1: Reducing Global Poverty
The ambitious Patterns of Potential Human Progress series was inspired by the United Nations Human Development Reports, the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and other initiatives to improve the global human condition. The foundational element of those initiatives, reducing poverty worldwide, is the focus of this book, the first volume in the PPHP series.Reducing Global Poverty uses a large-scale computer program called International Futures (IFs), developed over three decades and based and the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures within the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. The book presents the most extensive set of forecasts of global and country-level poverty ever made, providing and exploring a massive multi-issue database and a wide range of scenarios. The forecasts are long-term, looking 50 years into the future, thereby anticipating the need of the global community to think well beyond the MDGs.
DownloadsFull Volume
PPHP1 Full VolumeBase Case End Tables Using IFs Version 7.02
Base Case End TablesAlternate Scenario 1 End Tables Using IFs Version 7.02
Poverty Combined Domestic InterventionsAlternate Scenario 2 End Tables Using IFs Version 7.02
Poverty Combined International InterventionsAlternate Scenario 3 End Tables Using IFs Version 7.02
Poverty Combined Domestic and International InterventionsSummary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario AnnotationsDetailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations -
PPHP 2: Advancing Global Education
Advancing Global Education is the second volume in the PPHP series. The questions it addresses are:- How rapidly are education enrollments and adult attainment levels advancing around the world?
- Which countries will realize the goal of universal primary education by 2015 and, for those that miss, when might they reach it?
- How rapidly can countries realistically expect to reach the next big goal of universal lower secondary education?
- What are the financial costs of accelerating progress in enrollment and attainment, and do expected benefits ultimately exceed those costs?
DownloadsFull Volume
PPHP2 Full VolumeBase Case End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Base Case End TablesAlternate Scenario End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Education Normative ScenarioSummary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario AnnotationsDetailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations -
PPHP 3: Improving Global Health
The questions addressed in Improving Global Health, the third volume in the PPHP series, are:- What health outcomes might we expect over the next 50 years given current patterns of human development?
- What opportunities exist for intervention and the achievement of alternate health futures?
- How might improved health futures affect broader economic social, and political prospects of countries, regions, and the world?
DownloadsFull Volume
PPHP3 Full VolumeBase Case End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Base Case End TablesAlternate Scenario 1 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Health All Drivers Good Adjusted BaseAlternate Scenario 2 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Health Things Go WrongSummary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario AnnotationsDetailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations -
PPHP 4: Building Global Infrastructure
Volume 4 in the PPHP series tells a story of possible futures for basic infrastructure (access to all-season roads, electricity, improved water and sanitation, and information and communication technologies) across the globe. Questions addressed by Building Global Infrastructure are:- How much basic infrastructure is likely to be in place over the next 50 years?
- What will infrastructure access rates be in countries around the world?
- Are there aggressive but reasonable ways to accelerate the provision of basic infrastructure, taking into account the currently-different levels of infrastructure across countries and other country-specific circumstances?
DownloadsFull Volume
PPHP4 Full VolumeBase Case End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Base Case End TablesAlternate Scenario 1 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Infrastructure Good Performance 2050 TargetsAlternate Scenario 2 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Infrastructure Universal 2050 TargetsSummary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario AnnotationsDetailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations -
PPHP 5: Strengthening Governance Globally
The final volume in the PPHP series, Strengthening Governance Globally, focuses on long-term transitions in the character of country-level governance around the world. Questions that it addresses include:- What roles do the provision of security, the building of capacity, and the broadening and deepening of inclusion play in advancing human development?
- Given feedback loops between governance and other aspects of human development, what changes have occurred in security, capacity, and inclusion in recent decades and what further changes do we anticipate in coming decades?
- To what extent might strengthened governance help countries face current and emerging global challenges?
DownloadsFull Volume
PPHP5 Full VolumeBase Case End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Base Case End TablesAlternate Scenario 1 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Global ChallengesAlternate Scenario 2 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Global Challenges Plus Strengthened GovernanceAlternate Scenario 3 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Global Challenges Plus Strengthened Governance and PoliciesAlternate Scenario 4 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Strengthened Governance and PoliciesSummary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario AnnotationsDetailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations