Pardee About

The first part of our mission statement focuses on what we do, specifically, what makes our approach rigorous and unmatched.

Our tools 

We are an interdisciplinary research institute that is housed within academia. We host International Futures (IFs), the only open-source integrated assessment platform and forecasting tool that, in combination, (a) uses a hybrid approach of systems dynamics, econometrics, and other quantitative techniques; (b) incorporates and leverages over 5,000 historical series to analyze and forecast hundreds of interconnected, macro-level variables across human, social, and natural systems; (c) includes forecasts for 188 countries in one-year time steps from 2022 through the end of this century and beyond.

IFs forecasts across 11 dynamically connected submodules: agriculture, demographics, economics, education, energy, environment, governance, health, human development, infrastructure, and international relations. By integrating these systems, IFs can simulate how changes in one system may lead to changes across all systems.  

We believe that the true value of models lies not in predicting outcomes, but in shaping how we think about and understand the future. Long-term integrated models equip us to identify and analyze the fundamental forces that drive change over the coming decades. At the same time, they offer a structured approach to navigating uncertainty, enabling scenario-based analysis that informs policy decisions and more resilient planning.  

By including historical data series from 1960 onwards, we can examine past trends to anchor our understanding of our current trajectory, of how human, social, and environmental systems interact over time, and of how we think about and address the “grand challenges” awaiting the global community. This is core to our approach to building knowledge about the future. 

We also seek to better understand and measure bilateral and multilateral state relationships by gathering data, building analytical tools, and conducting analysis. This area of our research identifies international interactions that measure the depth and breadth of political, diplomatic, economic, security, and cultural ties between countries. Parts of this workstream are integrated with IFs, while others stand alone as entirely separate datasets and tools.

Our approach 

Our research approach is grounded in empirical evidence. It is designed to study the structural drivers of change and durability, particularly in the context of development, climate change, and international relations. We are committed to transparency because we believe in democratizing access to knowledge about the long-term future, making it available to everyone and not hidden behind paywalls and other barriers to understanding. We recognize that the complexity of our model presents practical barriers to entry, and this plan aims to address some of them.

In addition to access, transparency facilitates a core tenet associated with academic rigor: reproducibility. This openness enables broader scrutiny, collaboration, and application across both scientific and policy communities, reinforcing the credibility and utility of our work.

We build scenarios grounded in an understanding of the interconnectedness among the relationships represented in our model. This sets us apart from others in the field: IFs forecasts are integrated across various issues, rather than focusing on each issue in isolation. Additionally, we can broaden or narrow our long-term forecasts to encompass global, regional, and country-level perspectives.

We have three interconnected research workstreams: development analysis (also called sustainable development), geopolitical analysis, and model development. Through development analysis, we model scenarios across a range of cross-cutting issue areas, including education, health, infrastructure, and poverty. Likewise, geopolitics is heavily influenced by interconnected systems and intersecting levels of analysis, which are reflected in our data building and scenario work, including how development trends may affect national power and influence. Our work enhancing the IFs model, which involves model and systems development, is the engine that powers these research activities..  

We evaluate policy alternatives in a world where resources are constrained and policy objectives sometimes conflict. We develop policy strategies that are grounded in this reality, guided by curiosity (a core value) about experiences and impacts, and shaped by the needs and perspectives of those we serve and their constituencies.