Patterns of Potential Human Progress

The ambitious Patterns of Potential Human Progress series was inspired by the United Nations Human Development Reports, the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and other initiatives to improve the global human condition. The foundational element of those initiatives, reducing poverty worldwide, is the focus of this book, the first volume in the PPHP series.

Reducing Global Poverty uses a large-scale computer program called International Futures (IFs), developed over three decades and based and the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures within the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. The book presents the most extensive set of forecasts of global and country-level poverty ever made, providing and exploring a massive multi-issue database and a wide range of scenarios. The forecasts are long-term, looking 50 years into the future, thereby anticipating the need of the global community to think well beyond the MDGs.

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Full Volume
PPHP1 Full Volume

Base Case End Tables Using IFs Version 7.02
Base Case End Tables

Alternate Scenario 1 End Tables Using IFs Version 7.02
Poverty Combined Domestic Interventions

Alternate Scenario 2 End Tables Using IFs Version 7.02
Poverty Combined International Interventions

Alternate Scenario 3 End Tables Using IFs Version 7.02
Poverty Combined Domestic and International Interventions

Summary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario Annotations

Detailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations

Advancing Global Education is the second volume in the PPHP series. The questions it addresses are:

• How rapidly are education enrollments and adult attainment levels advancing around the world?
• Which countries will realize the goal of universal primary education by 2015 and, for those that miss, when might they reach it?
• How rapidly can countries realistically expect to reach the next big goal of universal lower secondary education?
• What are the financial costs of accelerating progress in enrollment and attainment, and do expected benefits ultimately exceed those costs?

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Full Volume
PPHP2 Full Volume

Base Case End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Base Case End Tables

Alternate Scenario End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Education Normative Scenario

Summary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario Annotations

Detailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations

The questions addressed in Improving Global Health, the third volume in the PPHP series, are:

• What health outcomes might we expect over the next 50 years given current patterns of human development?
• What opportunities exist for intervention and the achievement of alternate health futures?
• How might improved health futures affect broader economic social, and political prospects of countries, regions, and the world?

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Full Volume
PPHP3 Full Volume

Base Case End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Base Case End Tables

Alternate Scenario 1 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Health All Drivers Good Adjusted Base

Alternate Scenario 2 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Health Things Go Wrong

Summary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario Annotations

Detailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations

Volume 4 in the PPHP series tells a story of possible futures for basic infrastructure (access to all-season roads, electricity, improved water and sanitation, and information and communication technologies) across the globe. Questions addressed by Building Global Infrastructure are:

• How much basic infrastructure is likely to be in place over the next 50 years?
• What will infrastructure access rates be in countries around the world?
• Are there aggressive but reasonable ways to accelerate the provision of basic infrastructure, taking into account the currently-different levels of infrastructure across countries and other country-specific circumstances?

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Full Volume
PPHP4 Full Volume

Base Case End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Base Case End Tables

Alternate Scenario 1 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Infrastructure Good Performance 2050 Targets

Alternate Scenario 2 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Infrastructure Universal 2050 Targets

Summary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario Annotations

Detailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations

The final volume in the PPHP series, Strengthening Governance Globally, focuses on long-term transitions in the character of country-level governance around the world. Questions that it addresses include:

• What roles do the provision of security, the building of capacity, and the broadening and deepening of inclusion play in advancing human development?
• Given feedback loops between governance and other aspects of human development, what changes have occurred in security, capacity, and inclusion in recent decades and what further changes do we anticipate in coming decades? 
• To what extent might strengthened governance help countries face current and emerging global challenges?

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Full Volume
PPHP5 Full Volume

Base Case End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Base Case End Tables

Alternate Scenario 1 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Global Challenges

Alternate Scenario 2 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Global Challenges Plus Strengthened Governance

Alternate Scenario 3 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Global Challenges Plus Strengthened Governance and Policies

Alternate Scenario 4 End Tables Using IFs 7.0.2
Strengthened Governance and Policies

Summary Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Summary Scenario Annotations

Detailed Scenario Annotations, All PPHP Volumes
PPHP Detailed Scenario Annotations