Keisuke Minai used the Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) Index and Global Power Index (GPI) from the Pardee's Institute's Diplometrics research program to explore Qatar's use of mediation diplomacy following an air strike in its capital in September 2025. According to Professor Minai, their advanced statistical analysis "confirms that Qatar’s mediation activities are positively associated with its international influence in the long term, while its national power plays a role in the short term."

Meisel, C. (2025, January 13). From Myanmar to Gaza, Ukraine to Sudan – 2024 was another grim year, according to our mass atrocity index. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/from-myanmar-to-gaza-ukraine-to-sudan-2024-was-another-grim-year-accord

Meisel, C. (2024, December 12). In Syria, be careful what you wish for. Modern War Institute. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/in-syria-be-careful-what-you-wish-for/

Hanna, T., Kruczkiewicz, A., Owen, M. (2024, December 10). Land degradation and human development in Yemen. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/yemen/publications/land-degradation-and-human-development-yemen

This study, “Land Degradation and Human Development in Yemen,” was commissioned by UNDP in 2024 as part of a collaboration with the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver and climate researchers. Yemen is frequently said to be experiencing one of the worst development and humanitarian crises in the world after more
than ten years of ongoing conflict. At the same time, it is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change and for decades has faced a worsening water crisis as well as land degradation (including deterioration of historical terracing systems), desertification and soil erosion. This report seeks to better understand how the above-mentioned phenomena could affect economic and human development in Yemen on immediate, medium and long-term timescales.

The report explores the links between climate change, land degradation and desertification, conflict, and human development outcomes in Yemen. This report begins with a review of the literature of the drivers, context, and intervening factors around land degradation and desertification in Yemen so far. This is followed by an analysis of historical subregional data on land degradation and climatic variables within
the country. Turning toward the socioeconomic effects, the report first reviews literature on the pathways through which desertification can alter agricultural production and otherwise affect economic and human development. Finally, the report uses integrated modelling techniques and scenario analysis using the  International Futures (IFs) model to explore the effect of degradation and restoration pathways on future development in Yemen. The IFs model has previously been applied to assess the effect of ongoing conflict in Yemen on human development and to examine possible recovery pathways in the Impact of War trilogy of reports and the Impact of Climate Change on Human Development produced by UNDP and the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures.

Meisel, C., Lin, B., Greitens, S.C., & Shugart, T. (2024, July 24). In brief: China’s third plenum. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2024/ 07/in-brief-chinas-third-plenum

Last week, the Chinese Communist Party held its third plenum, a closed door meeting of high-level party officials that has historically indicated the country’s policy direction on major issues, such as the economy. This was the first third plenum held since 2018 and was hotly anticipated, especially considering China’s faltering economic growth. We asked four experts to tell us more about the outcomes of the meeting and what this might indicate about China’s strategy in the coming months and years.

Yemen voluntary national review. (2024, July). Contributions from Taylor Hanna, Abdelrahman Ibrahim, and Jonathan D. Moyer. Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation. https://hlpf.un.org/countries/yemen/voluntary-national-reviews-2024

Yemen has been experiencing an exceptional phase and highly complex conditions for ten years due to a coup by the Houthi terrorist militia against the state. One of the consequences of this war has been the collapse of the state and the redirection of development and growth trajectories into the negative for many years, with Yemen falling in all international economic, humanitarian, and social indicators. However, despite this difficult reality, the resilience and cohesion of Yemenis, along with the sincere support from brothers and friends, have been fundamental in normalizing the situation, restoring stability, and resuming the building of state institutions. Despite all the challenges, including the ongoing war and difficult economic conditions, there are efforts being made to restore building and development, with national consensus on strengthening institutional work and developing tools to interact with the world and integrate into the visions of development and prosperity of the region and the world, and to address the consequences of the war. The economic file represents a top priority in the government's agenda and its general program, including achieving sustainable development goals and enhancing economic resilience. Five main priorities have been set for the government's work in the coming phase: (a) restoring the state and achieving sustainable peace, (b) combating corruption and enhancing transparency and accountability, (c) achieving financial and administrative reform, (d) developing economic resources, and (e) maximizing the benefits from external aid and grants and directing them according to the needs and priorities of the government. Through these five priorities, we will strive to achieve tangible and clear progress towards the sustainable development goals, and we will harness all possible energies for this purpose.

Meisel, C., Studeman, M., Sun, Y., & Daniels, R. (2024, May 8). In brief: U.S-Chinese relationship. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2024/05/in-brief-the-u-s-chinese-relationship/

Meisel, C. (2023, December 7). Rewind and Reconnoiter: China's Slowing Economy with Collin Meisel. War on the Rocks.

In 2019, Collin Meisel and Jonathan D. Moyer wrote “Preparing for China’s Rapid Rise and Decline” for War on the Rocks, looking at how “China’s rapid transition toward a downward trajectory will pose a unique set of national security challenges for the United States that could prove even more difficult than those posed by China’s rise.” In light of China’s economic slowdown, we asked Collin to look back on the piece and its recommendations. Read more by clicking on the link.

Meisel, C., Sun, Y., Blanchette, J., & Scissors, D. (2023, December 6). In Brief: China's Struggling Economy - War on the Rocks. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2023/12/in-brief-chinas-struggling-economy/

Hanna, T., Kelley, C., Kruczkiewicz, A., & Moyer, J. (2023, December). The Impact of Climate Change on Human Development in Yemen. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2023-11/impact_of_climate_change_on_human_development_in_yemen.pdf

This report presents the findings of a study on projections of climate change in Yemen and its effect on human development. The United Nations Development Programme commissioned the Pardee Center for International Futures to complete this study.