Korbel ranked 12th best place in the world to earn a master’s degree in international relations.
Korbel ranked 20th in the world for the best undergraduate degree in international studies.
Korbel ranked 12th best place in the world to earn a master’s degree in international relations.
Korbel ranked 20th in the world for the best undergraduate degree in international studies.
By: Sylvia Morna Freitas
International Studies Quarterly published a new article authored by Institute Director Jonathan D. Moyer, Acting Director of Analysis Collin J. Meisel, COLT Project Manager Kylie X. McKee, and a larger team of researchers, making the Country and Organizational Leader Travel (COLT) dataset public for the first time. The COLT dataset is a research project at the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures that documents the travel of heads of government and state (HOGS) from 212 different countries from 1990 through 2024. The COLT dataset is the first of its kind. Accounting for 78,641 foreign trips as of 2023, the article delves into how the comprehensive and global nature of the dataset allows for “the first generalizable findings on the causes and effects of global leader travel.”
In their ground-breaking article on the COLT dataset, the authors demonstrate the utility of the data through a series of statistical tests. First, they provide descriptive statistics about trends in HOGS travel over time. Second, they test the drivers and correlates of travel and use the analyses to evaluate causal relationships between leader travel and a variety of other factors. And third, they conduct a special exploration of the relationship between travel and trade with the first global dataset.
Digging into the richness of the data, the authors highlight several interesting trends for the 1990-2023 period. For example, leaders averaged 10.9 international trips per year, and despite a significant decline in travel due to COVID-19, by 2023, leader travel reached a post-1990 high with 3,188 total trips occurring that year. The United States and European countries received the most visits, while countries like Palestine visited the most countries, and the African region had the fastest annual growth rate for visits at 4.5 percent. From the data, the authors found that democracies tend to travel more than autocracies, although there is significant variation at the country level. Additionally, countries with higher diplomatic influence, such as those in the European Union or North Atlantic Treaty Organization, received a disproportionate share of visits.
The authors were then able to test theories about drivers of leader travel from previous research with a global dataset for the first time. “Our findings reinforce many explanations of what drives leader travel, showing that levels of development, material capabilities, economic and institutional interdependencies, conflict, distance, and homophily all matter,” the authors say in the article.
Their analysis came to these conclusions by examining both monadic (country-year) and dyadic (country-pair-year) models. The findings show that material interests are a key factor influencing leader travel, with countries involved in economic exchanges—such as fossil fuel exports, foreign aid, and arms trade—experiencing more visits. Additionally, states involved in conflict are more likely to engage in diplomatic travel, possibly as part of efforts to manage or resolve conflicts. Another significant factor is the logic of homophily, where leaders tend to visit countries with similar political values or regime types, with shared voting behavior in the UN also correlating with more frequent bilateral visits. Geographical distance also plays a crucial role with greater distance between countries leading to fewer trips due to the increased costs of travel. In addition, the routine and reciprocal nature of visits is important, with regular diplomatic exchanges leading to more frequent travel.
Overall, the authors findings demonstrate that diplomatic travel is driven by a combination of economic, political, and geographical factors that have been explored in past literature but can now be interrogated and probed more deeply with the COLT data. For example, prior literature claims “an increase in diplomatic travel is a leading indicator of increased trade.” The authors were able to test the robustness of this claim by testing the relationship between travel and trade across COLT’s global dataset, instead of just the two countries, China and the U.S., that the original study was based on. The authors find that while leader travel is a leading indicator of increased trade, increased trade is also a leading indicator of increased travel. In other words, the causal relationship is complex and bidirectional.
The authors of the COLT project were motivated to create this dataset because of the under-investigation this topic has received in the past. Despite literature that highlighted the importance of HOGS visits vis-a-vis a variety of diplomatic factors, earlier studies were often limited to western or powerful countries, overlooking smaller, non-western states and limiting the reach of conclusions drawn on the causes and effects of leader travel. This previously unaddressed gap is where the COLT dataset is making a unique contribution. As the first public-access resource of its kind, the COLT dataset will further future research on “issues such as national prestige, public diplomacy, weaponized interdependence, and interstate conflict.”
The COLT dataset is the product of several years of dedicated work from the authors of the new article and hundreds of undergraduate and graduate research aides at the Pardee Institute. A large part of what makes it possible for the COLT dataset to be so extensive is the large team of student employees that actively track and code new leader trips. Participation in the project also gives students at the University of Denver a unique opportunity to expand their professional and data management skills. The cross-sectional nature of COLT’s team, from the Pardee Institute’s director to undergraduate research aides, is indicative of the Institute’s wider innovative approach to generate useful research and help develop a new generation of experienced professionals in the field.
The COLT dataset and codebook are freely available to the public and are included with the replication materials accompanying the article in the International Studies Quarterly. To access the dataset, click here. To read the full article, click here.
COLT is part of the Institute’s Diplometrics Program. Diplometrics is funded by the U.S. government to better understand and measure relationships in the international system by gathering data, building tools, and conducting analysis. The project identifies international interactions that measure the depth and breadth of political, diplomatic, economic, security, and cultural ties between countries. The results and views expressed are those of the authors alone and do not represent the views of the U.S. Government.
UNICEF and the Pardee Institute have released a report, Navigating the future: Four scenarios assessing child well-being in the twenty-first century. Authors Jonathan Moyer, director of the Pardee Institute, and Deva Sahadevan, research associate at Pardee, found that increased global cooperation, in tandem with high technological advancements and resource availability, promise the most sustainable future for younger generations worldwide.
These findings are useful, if not surprising. The authors arrived at this conclusion through simulating different future pathways along various points of intersection among those key domains of technology and cooperation. This methodology offers a proactive framework that can help policymakers promotes current and future well-being while mitigating the perverse effects of economic growth.
The authors apply a 2x2 scenario framework featuring scenarios grounded in combinations of high or low levels of technological innovation, resource availability, and international cooperation. These factors determine how future challenges such as climate change, resource distribution, and geopolitical tensions might affect children’s well-being. The scenarios are designed to evaluate long-term trends and their implications for children, with particular emphasis on regions most vulnerable to changes in development.
The resulting scenarios include possible futures of:
Using the Pardee Institute’s International Futures platform (IFs), the authors apply quantitative data from various sources, including economic indicators, health statistics, and environmental data, to define these scenarios and to project future well-being outcomes that are measured by economic output, extreme poverty, malnutrition, hunger, carbon emissions.
The global synergy scenario, the most ideal scenario, envisions a future where technological progress aligns with robust international cooperation, unlocking advancements in health, education, and environmental sustainability. Under this scenario, global GDP increases by 10.7%, while per capita GDP rises by 9.8%, accompanied by a dramatic reduction in global poverty—from 8.7% to just 0.4% by 2050. The scenario highlights clean energy infrastructure and lower carbon emissions, demonstrating how unified global efforts can foster a sustainable and prosperous world. However, its feasibility is questioned, given the current concentration of political power and the suspected depletion of Earth's resources.
The other three scenarios present fewer promising paths. The divided prosperity scenario, reflecting current trends, demonstrates significant GDP growth and reduced poverty, with 265 million fewer people living in extreme conditions and malnutrition halving by 2050. Yet, these gains come at the cost of escalating carbon emissions, worsened pollution, and rising global temperatures. The fragmented world scenario predicts slow technological and economic growth, with persistently high poverty levels and unaddressed critical issues like child malnutrition and mortality. Meanwhile, the struggling together scenario highlights the potential benefits of enhanced global collaboration, which lowers poverty and malnutrition rates. However, the lack of technological progress limits its ability to effectively address broader developmental challenges, like child development and technology.
The report concludes with broad policy suggestions based on the results of the 2x2 framework. The authors encourage the strengthening of international institutions to address global environmental issues while promoting economic equality, investing in children’s health and education, and fostering greater cooperation among governments and international communities. Read more about the scenarios, their results, and the authors’ recommendations here.
IFs is the only open-source integrated assessment platform and forecasting tool that employs a hybrid approach, combining systems dynamics, econometrics, and other quantitative techniques to forecast a range of interconnected, macro-level variables across human, social, and natural systems for 188 countries in one-year time steps, extending as far as the year 2100. These multifaceted dimensions of modeling are integral to forecasting potential outcomes for future generations on a global scale, considering both actual and hypothetical drivers of change.
UNICEF - an international organization dedicated to advancing children’s well-being around the globe - and Pardee’s collaboration bridges the gap between global decision-makers and academic researchers, using data tools and policy knowledge to encourage and assist in creating a more sustainable and equitable world for children.
By: Wara Irfan
A recent article published by the Modern War Institute at West Point analyzes how longstanding foreign actors will navigate Syria’s geopolitical landscape following the fall of Assad. It cites the Pardee Institute’s Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) Index data to identify major foreign actors and track the trajectory of their influence in Syria since the 1960s.
Written shortly after Assad’s fall, Assad’s Downfall in Syria: Who Wins and Who Loses? highlights, using FBIC data, the regional uncertainties and forecast potential winners and losers of Syrian regime change by examining the last 80 years of foreign influence exerted on Syria by major actors like Russia, Turkey, China, Iran, the United States, Europe (particularly through the activities of France), and Israel.
The FBIC Index measures formal relational power between countries across economic, political, and security dimensions, focusing on state-sanctioned interactions like diplomatic exchange and trade. Developed by the Diplometrics Program, it helps quantify global power dynamics and informs the International Futures (IFs) model, aids researchers and U.S. policymakers in assessing global power shifts.
Credit: Modern War Institute at West Point
The authors’ analysis of FBIC data suggests that Iran and Russia’s influence in Syria will likely continue to decline in a post-Assad era. Meanwhile, Turkey, which supports the Syrian National Army against both Assad and the Kurds, views this as an opportunity to expand its influence. FBIC data shows that Turkey’s capacity has grown over the past two decades and can see the regime change as an opportunity to continue countering perceived threats from the Syrian Kurds.
Furthermore, FBIC data reveals that U.S. influence in Syria began declining around the mid-2010s. While the U.S. still maintains approximately 900 troops at the al-Tanf garrison near the Iraqi and Jordanian borders to counter ISIS and Iran-backed militias, the future of this key outpost remains uncertain, as President Trump may choose to shut it down.
Modern War Institute at West Point—a leading research hub dedicated to the study of contemporary warfare—highlights the significance of the Pardee Institute’s FBIC data in analyzing global dynamics. This index not only informs strategic analysis but also shapes discourse surrounding bilateral relationships between nation-states.
By: Sylvia Morna Freitas
A new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change led by Marina Andrijevic of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) argues for the importance of including gender dynamics and trends in the analysis of climate change. The study, co-authored by Caroline Zimm (IIASA), Jonathan D. Moyer, director of the Pardee Institute for International Futures, Raya Muttarak (IIASA), and Shonali Pachauri (IIASA), draws upon existing research to show that a direct relationship between gender equality and a society’s capacity to respond to climate change exists and is currently underexplored in quantitative models—a significant gap in research.
“Our work was inspired by growing evidence that when women lack opportunities, from access to primary schooling to having a say at top levels of government, it weakens the ability of entire societies to respond to crises, such as climate change,” Andrijevic says. The authors argue that issues of gender (in)equality are largely overlooked in scenario-based climate change research and show that this has implications for our ability to study patterns of mitigation and adaptation. When women do not have equal access to education or employment, the ability of women to contribute to climate mitigation is limited and, in some places, lost. This untapped potential both compounds the cost of climate adaptation and diminishes the capacity of a society to respond overall.
The Pardee Institute’s mission is to build data and tools to better understand and plan for the future. This publication furthers that mission by highlighting an important gap in research that can drive improvements in future models to help policymakers better assess risks and policy options. Understanding how gender and climate change overlap is crucial for building knowledge and crafting appropriate policy responses. For example, the authors show that men and women are more likely to face different climate-related risks. For women, there are increased risks to maternal health, undernutrition during droughts, and exposure to diseases while collecting water. Meanwhile, men are more likely to suffer from floods and storms, experience work-related heat stress, or face depression and suicide due to drought-related economic hardship. By neglecting these dynamics, our current scenarios make a significant omission.
This work aligns with other research conducted at Pardee that uses gender as a lens. By modeling different patterns of gender equality in relation to unpaid domestic work, health, climate change, education, and poverty, the International Futures (IFs) model can be used to ask and explore a broader range of questions with implications for climate change and beyond.
By: Sylvia Morna Freitas
Collin J. Meisel, acting director of analysis at the Pardee Institute, and his colleagues have just finished their analysis of the Pardee Institute’s Perceived Mass Atrocities Dataset (PMAD) for 2024—and the news is grim. According to the global dataset, people living in 111 countries around the world experienced some form of mass atrocity in the past year.
Covering 196 countries, the dataset aims to determine the breadth and severity of humanitarian suffering in each country under a single metric. The PMAD highlights several regions where analysis of atrocities using data on lethal atrocities only would be inadequate. In the project, a mass atrocity is an act of violence against 25 or more defenseless members of a social, cultural, ethnic, religious, or political group. The acts are rated on a scale of “lethal to less lethal,” which provides a more nuanced scope of threats of human suffering worldwide. For example, 2024 saw a slight decrease in the number of lethal atrocities from 2023. Still, several types of “less lethal” atrocities—actions involving gross, intentional violations of human rights on a mass scale, short of murder—were more numerous.
But as grim as these reports are, the work Meisel and his team complete is integral to providing an evidence-based foundation for future action. “By systematically tracking these atrocities, we increase the chance that perpetrators will one day be held accountable,” says Acting Director of Analysis Collin Meisel.
Countries with the top 25 worst average values for all years from 2018-2024, sorted from highest to lowest. *Events for 2024 data still under review; values may be underestimated.
Chart: The Conversation, CC-BY-ND Source: Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, Perceived Mass Atrocities Dataset Created with Datawrapper
In addition, because the PMAD classes atrocities under a single metric, it provides a measure to facilitate research on the relationship between mass atrocities and a myriad of other interconnected factors, such as state stability and conflict, economic development, colonialism, and gender equality.
Having an empirical framework to tease out these relationships allows us to better understand the risk factors and consequences of mass atrocities within the larger fabric of the world.
PMAD is sponsored by the U.S. Government and built to support the U.S. Congress’s Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act of 2018, which was enacted to prevent acts of genocide and other atrocity crimes through the recognition of patterns of escalation and the methods that prevent them. Elie Wiesel was a Holocaust survivor and Nobel laureate who implored the world not to turn away from atrocities but to bear witness. PMAD is a manifestation of that charge and is one of various datasets used by the US Government for monitoring, evaluation, and learning about mass atrocities worldwide.
More here in The Conversation.
By: Sylvia Morna Freitas
“Lenin’s entry into Russia is successful. He is working exactly as we would wish,” wrote a German Foreign Ministry official after Lenin, a Bolshevik revolutionary, arrived in St. Petersburg. Yet the state that emerged from the Bolshevik revolution, the Soviet Union, would prove essential in defeating Germany two short decades later.
In a commentary with the Modern War Institute at West Point, Collin J. Meisel, acting director of analysis at the Pardee Institute, discusses how political events sometimes boomerang in ways that are difficult to anticipate. The German government’s backing of Lenin’s infiltration into Russia during World War I guaranteed Russia’s permanent exit from the war but also contributed to Germany’s later defeat at the hands of the Soviet Union, according to Meisel.
As Meisel highlights, “History is replete with short-term victories that have evolved into long-term losses.” In light of the recent fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Meisel counsels caution.
While Syrians are understandably celebrating in the streets after decades of the Assad regime’s infamous brutality, only time will tell if the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which the United States designates a terrorist organization, will usher in a more peaceful and moderate era for Syria. Meisel says, “We should not mourn Assad’s fate. Nor should we call out the marching bands, at least not yet.”
The Modern War Institute serves as an intellectual resource for solving military problems and provides a forum for professionals to share opinions and cultivate ideas. Acting Director of Analysis Collin Meisel has a background in strategic and data-based geopolitical analysis from his work at the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures. Similar to the Modern War Institute, the Pardee Institute endeavors to build knowledge and tools to help policymakers and academics plan for the future.
Read the full article at the Modern War Institute.
The United Nations Development Programme, in collaboration with the Pardee Institute, has released a new report titled Land Degradation and Human Development in Yemen.
The report hones in on a region extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change and explores the links of environmental issues to the current humanitarian crisis and lack of human development in that region. The report culminates with recommendations for several policy strategies intended to mitigate the effects of land degradation and desertification in Yemen and support vulnerable communities across the region.
The Institute’s Associate Director of Development Analysis, Taylor Hanna, co-authored the report alongside independent researchers Andrew Kruczkiewicz and Michael Owen. Pardee Institute Director Jonathan D. Moyer, Senior Scientist Barry B. Hughes, Senior Systems Developer José Solórzano, Lead Operations Manager Yutang Xiong, and Pardee Fellow Researcher Victoria Pepera also contributed to the report.
The report is intended to explore, and to help policymakers understand, the connections between land degradation and human development; it also offers key interventions aimed at mitigating the effects of land degradation and supporting improvement in human development. Notably, the report uses the International Futures (IFs) integrated assessment model to explore scenarios that analyze how land degradation may affect human development in Yemen. In addition, the authors present pathways for further development in the region under differing IFs scenarios.
This report begins with a literature review exploring both the main drivers of desertification and land degradation and the links between precipitation and net primary land productivity and then moves into a detailed analysis of climate data within Yemen, including historical and projected data on temperature and precipitation. The authors note that the relationship between precipitation and land productivity is not especially strong. While land degradation may be driven in some of the regions by climate change, the larger problem lies in unsustainable agricultural practices and water use, in addition to conflict and governance challenges. Hence, reforms of these practices and policies in the region can, and should be, made to mitigate land degradation in Yemen.
Despite the weak linkage between precipitation and net land productivity, the authors note that the future evolution of precipitation patterns in Yemen could shift land degradation levels.
Many regions within Yemen are likely to see increased precipitation in the future, but exactly how is uncertain. If that increase is gradual and steady, this may provide an opportunity to strengthen “ecosystem resilience” by improving water management infrastructure and thus supporting agricultural productivity. But this increase could also come in the form of increased sporadic rainfall events which could exacerbate land degradation due to extreme flooding and interruptions in consistent agriculture yields. The authors propose new methods for analyzing precipitation in Yemen to improve accuracy in forecasting and encourage further data enhancement in the region.
The second part of the report delves into the socioeconomic impacts of land degradation in Yemen. This section uses scenario analysis with the IFs tool to demonstrate the effects of continued land degradation in the region on the Yemeni economy, agricultural yields, hunger, and poverty.
The first scenario created in the IFs tool is the Baseline scenario. This scenario is one that simulates a world without future effects of land degradation on economic and human development. This serves as a counterfactual against which we can compare the Land Degradation scenario.
In contrast, a continued Land Degradation scenario, which models the effects of land degradation on water and agricultural resources, results in lower economic and agricultural production. By 2050, this model leads to five million more people experiencing poverty and four million more experiencing hunger than the Baseline scenario forecasts. This scenario yields lower agricultural production and leads to a reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) of 5.6 percent compared against the Baseline scenario.
The Land Restoration scenario demonstrates an effort to focus directly on preventing further land degradation, rehabilitating agricultural yields, and implementing policies to aid in environmental improvement. This scenario forecasts an increase in economic output by 15 percent by 2050 when compared against the Land Degradation scenario. It also prevents further increases in hunger and significantly decreases the undernourished population by 9 million.
The Integrated Restoration scenario builds on the previous Land Restoration scenario by adding to it an end to the current conflict, improving governance and inclusion, and addressing other key human development deficits. This scenario forecasts that GDP per capita can reach pre-conflict levels by 2055. Twenty-two million fewer Yemenis experience poverty and 13 million fewer are undernourished in this scenario’s forecast compared to the Land Degradation scenario for the same year
(Refer to the report appendices for detailed information about how each scenario was created.)
The report concludes with several targeted, restorative recommendationsfor policymakers and key regional constituents to consider. These efforts include reaching a peaceful end to the current conflict; continuing to develop and understand quality data and research regarding desertification in Yemen; enhancing water resources and agriculture practices that prevent environmental degradation; and investing in extreme-weather infrastructure. A concerted and determined effort to follow these recommendations may lead Yemen into a peaceful and sustainable future, economically and environmentally.
The Pardee Institute’s ongoing partnership with UNDP reflects the Institute’s commitment to using quantitative modeling tools to identify strategic policy interventions to advance human development and sustainability. Similarly, this research highlights our efforts to understand the linkages between environmental challenges and conflict, governance, and peace. This project is notable as the first time IFs was used to forecast the effects of land degradation.
Jonathan Moyer, the director of the Pardee Institute, recently traveled to Seoul, South Korea, to present a paper at the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) conference. The paper, titled “Quantifying the roads ahead broadly: forecasts of the SSPs across demographics, conflict, economics, education, health, infrastructure, and governance for 188 countries to 2200,” introduces new Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios developed using the International Futures (IFs) model.
The IAMC is an international consortium of research institutions developing and using integrated assessment models to study global environmental change and socioeconomic development. Its annual meeting is a major forum for exchanging ideas and research on integrated assessment modeling.
The SSPs are a scenario framework used in various sustainability-related research efforts, including as inputs into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. The scenarios show five standard pathways of human and social development in the absence of climate policy or climate change impacts to frame worlds with different challenges to climate mitigation and adaptation.
This new SSP series introduced by Moyer and colleagues at the Pardee Institute represents a broader set of issue areas than the current SSP framework, including dynamically interconnected forecasts of economics, demographics, education, health, infrastructure, and governance. This series is also projected to reach 2150, allowing climate models to forecast granular change in development further into the future compared with existing SSPs that end in 2100.
"The new SSP elements provide a more comprehensive and integrated view of the future," said Moyer. "This will be valuable for researchers studying the impacts of climate change and other global challenges." Future plans include submitting this work for peer review and publication and making the new scenario results available via the IIASA website.
Mohammod Irfan, a senior scientist at the Pardee Institute, has co-authored a new research paper published in Water Security. The paper explores the current state of Ghana’s water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) sector. Using Pardee’s signature International Futures (IFs) tool, the paper examines various scenarios to determine the viability and implications of achieving targets of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and identifies a promising approach toward improvement of the WASH sector.
Titled The Past, Present, and Future of Ghana’s WASH Sector: An Explorative Analysis, the study finds that Ghana needs to invest an additional 1.3% to 1.5% of its GDP annually in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure to reach its SDG 6 target by 2030. While achieving 95% coverage by 2030 is feasible, the study projects that universal access to safe water and sanitation may not be achieved until mid-century.
IFs’ long-range global model provides country-specific representations of demographic, economic, and infrastructure systems, which allows researchers to examine the feasibility and impacts of achieving Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6). SDG 6 calls for universal access to clean water and sanitation. To forecast Ghana’s ability to meet this target, the authors simulated various policy and development scenarios relating to “potential long-range WASH expansion pathways for Ghana.”
According to the study, Ghana must quadruple the annual increase in access to safe water services to meet SDG 6.1 by 2030. Ghana's path to achieving SDG 6.2 is even steeper, requiring an expansion of safe sanitation access to an additional 9-10% of the population each year. A more feasible path to achieving SDG 6 involves prioritizing the eradication of open defecation and the use of unsafe drinking water, particularly in rural communities and urban slums.
According to the authors, improving WASH access can lead to significant health benefits, including an 8-10% annual decrease in infant mortality and a 12-15% annual reduction in deaths from diarrheal diseases. The economic benefits of improved WASH access are substantial, with long-term GDP gains outweighing the costs of infrastructure investments.
This study highlights the importance of targeted policies and investments that address the most pressing needs while fostering sustainable progress. By simulating the long-term effects of different strategies, the IFs model provides data-driven insights into the potential outcomes of various approaches.
Other named authors include Thelma Z. Abu, Meshack Achore, Ibrahim Musah, and Tanko Yussif Azzika.
The full article can be accessed on ScienceDirect.
The UNDP launched a new report co-authored by the Pardee Institute, Advancing the SDG Push with Equitable Low-Carbon Pathways, at the 29th session of the Conference of Parties (COP 29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Delegates of COP29 gathered this year to discuss climate finance, grappling with the urgent need to fund clean energy and mitigate climate change impacts in developing countries. The report outlines a coordinated and dedicated policy response to advancing sustainable development and eradicating poverty. Its inclusion at COP29 reaches key country and regional decision-makers and thought leaders among the attendees, amplifying the report’s potential to capitalize on new climate action initiatives.
This report uses the Pardee Institute’s International Futures (IFs) model to explore an integrated development scenario, the SDG Push 3.0. The IFs model generates long-term projections for socioeconomic and environmental indicators, helping policymakers and researchers forecast future outcomes from current development efforts. The SDG Push scenario, originally developed in 2021 in a project led by Pardee founder Dr. Barry Hughes and recently published in Sustainability, simulates an accelerated integrated global push toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDG Push has become a flagship initiative within UNDP, helping to map out transformative futures and outline how key investments can improve human lives and development globally. SDG Push 3.0 builds on this work by elaborating a framework for a just and equitable transition to a low-carbon society.
SDG Push 3.0 prioritizes fairness, particularly for those dependent on fossil fuels, while advancing sustainable development goals. It follows general principles of low-carbon pathways relating to energy use, energy efficiency, and renewable energy technology. It advocates for an increase in energy efficiency for high-income nations and an increase in energy demand for low-income nations and addresses current inequities regarding per capita energy consumption.
The UNDP report compares likely outcomes under SDG Push 3.0 against the baseline Current Path scenario developed by the Pardee Institute. The Current Path is designed to demonstrate the “most likely path forward” or “business as usual.”
The authors found that SDG Push 3.0 shows that these coordinated actions can lift 60 million people out of poverty by 2030, compared with the Current Path, and 175 million by 2050, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Improvements in health and education outcomes close the stark gap in global human development outcomes. At the same time, energy and environmental interventions will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use by 65% by 2050. The report concludes that coordinated approaches to climate and development policies, like SDG Push 3.0, can reduce inequality, promote sustainable growth, and keep global temperature rise within safe limits. It calls on countries to act quickly, update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and work together to ensure fair transitions.
This collaboration between UNDP and the Pardee Institute provides an opportunity for the institute to showcase the real-world application of its modeling tools in addressing global challenges like climate change, poverty, and inequality. Using the IF’s existing projections, the report reveals a new potential path towards a more sustainable world with hopes of being picked up by actionable stakeholders at COP29. The full report and interactive findings are available online.
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