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History of Pardee

The Pardee Institute for International Futures grew from a long-running effort to help people think more clearly about global change.
What began as an academic modeling project in the 1970s became an open-source platform, a research center, and, today, an institute for long-term strategic analysis. Across that history, the central purpose has remained steady: to help researchers, students, policymakers, and partner organizations examine how human, social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical systems may change over time.

Use this page to learn how Pardee’s founding, support, partnerships, and institutional growth shaped the work we do today.

A history built around a long-term question

Many of the choices facing societies do not unfold in one sector or one budget cycle. Decisions about development, climate, health, education, infrastructure, governance, and international relations often depend on assumptions about how systems will interact over decades.

Pardee’s history begins with that challenge. The Institute’s work grew from a simple but demanding question: how can people use data, models, and transparent assumptions to reason more carefully about plausible futures?

That question shaped the development of International Futures (IFs), Pardee’s open-source, integrated forecasting platform for scenario-based analysis. IFs does not predict a single future. It helps users compare plausible futures under different assumptions, making long-term pathways, trade-offs, and uncertainty easier to examine.
The origins of Pardee’s work trace back to Dr. Barry B. Hughes, who began developing what would become the International Futures system while at Case Western Reserve University in the 1970s.

In 1980, Dr. Hughes brought his global model to the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, then known as the Graduate School of International Studies. At DU, IFs continued to mature as a tool for studying long-term national, regional, and global change.

A key turning point came in the early 2000s, when Dr. Hughes met Frederick S. Pardee at RAND in Santa Monica. Their shared interest in using systems, data, and long-term analysis to improve understanding of the human condition led to the creation of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at DU in 2006.

The Center gave IFs a durable institutional home. It also created the capacity to strengthen the model, expand its applications, and bring more people into the work of examining long-term global change.
Learn more about the origins of IFs
Dr. Barry B. Hughes developed International Futures and served as the founding director of what is now the Pardee Institute. His scholarship and policy-facing work helped establish the intellectual foundation for Pardee’s integrated approach to long-term analysis.

Read about Barry Hughes and the origin of IFs

The support that made expansion possible
Frederick S. Pardee’s support helped turn a modeling effort into an enduring research institution.

His founding gift in 2006 enabled DU and the Korbel School to establish the Center. That support sustained the development of IFs and made possible the Institute’s flagship publication series, Patterns of Potential Human Progress, which used IFs to examine global challenges in poverty, education, health, infrastructure, and governance.


Learn more about Frederick S. Pardee’s support
Frederick S. Pardee’s philanthropy helped make DU the institutional home of IFs and supported the growth of the Center that became today’s Pardee Institute.

Read about the Pardee Institute's founding support

From 2011 to 2023, the Pardee Center expanded its research portfolio and deepened its partnerships with policy, academic, and development communities.

This period showed how IFs-based analysis could support different kinds of long-term questions. Pardee worked with partners on global trends, development pathways, geopolitical analysis, poverty, food security, health, infrastructure, and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Several areas of work became especially important to the Center’s growth:
Development analysis
Pardee used IFs to examine how changes in education, health, poverty, infrastructure, governance, food security, and other systems may shape development outcomes over time. Work with partners such as the Institute for Security Studies, the African Union Development Agency, the United Nations Development Programme, UN Women, Action Against Hunger, USAID, and others applied long-term analysis to country, regional, and global development questions.
Geopolitical analysis
Pardee expanded its work on international relations, political instability, national power, and influence. Projects such as the Diplometrics Project helped turn selected geopolitical relationships into documented, comparable evidence, while other collaborations examined long-term questions about conflict, strategy, and global power.
Research and policy applications
Across this period, Pardee’s work often moved between academic research and policy-facing analysis. Projects produced reports, policy briefs, datasets, peer-reviewed publications, and tools that helped partners compare assumptions, test scenarios, and examine possible long-term effects of decisions made today.

The result was not a shift away from IFs, but a broader set of applications built on the platform’s integrated structure.
In October 2023, Pardee was designated an Institute at the University of Denver, reflecting its growth as a research organization and its expanding contribution to DU’s research community. In 2026, the Pardee Institute received a Research, Scholar, and Creative Works Award in recognition of its impact.

The foundation of Pardee’s work remains IFs. The platform continues to support scenario-based analysis across connected systems, helping users examine how assumptions about development, climate, governance, economic change, and international relations may shape future pathways.

As an Institute, Pardee is positioned to continue investing in the research infrastructure behind that work: model development, data systems, documentation, training, public-facing tools, and partnerships. Continuing support from Frederick S. Pardee’s legacy, along with institutional support from the Korbel School, gives Pardee room to strengthen both the rigor and accessibility of its work.

The next phase of Pardee’s history will depend on how well the Institute can make its tools, assumptions, and analysis useful to the people who need them. That includes researchers testing new questions, students learning how to reason across systems, policymakers weighing trade-offs, and partner organizations planning for futures that remain uncertain but not unknowable.
The support that drives this work forward
Mr. Pardee’s later support helped the Center grow in practical ways as well, including space for the team and continuing endowment support. His estate gift in 2024 brought his total giving to the University of Denver to just under $25 million, creating further capacity for Pardee to invest in tools, datasets, research, and public-facing applications.

The significance of this support is not only financial. It helped create the conditions for a research institute that is not defined by a single project or partnership, but by a broader body of work: open-source modeling, scenario analysis, data development, scholarship, training, and engagement with organizations working on long-term global questions.

Read about the Pardee Institute's sustaining support

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