Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity

The Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity Index measures the capacity for influence between pairs of states across economic, political, and security relationships. It is part of the Pardee Institute's Diplometrics program, which builds datasets to measure international relationships that are often discussed qualitatively but are difficult to compare systematically. This index helps users study relational power, dependence, geopolitical leverage, and spheres of influence across the international system.

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Index at a glance

Measures

Formal bilateral influence capacity, or relational power, between states

Unit of Analysis

Country-pair / dyad-year

Geographic coverage

All pairs of states

Time coverage

1960–present

Dimensions

Economic, political, and security influence capacity

Access

Public

Related publication(s)

See here.

Parent program

Diplometrics

Definitions

Formal

State-sanctioned, state-sponsored, or publicly acknowledged forms of influence capacity, such as diplomatic exchange, arms transfers, and goods trade. The index does not measure covert activity or policymakers’ willingness to use influence.

Bilateral

Country-to-country relationships. Users can analyze many bilateral relationships together to study larger patterns, including possible spheres of influence.

Influence

Relational power: one country’s capacity to affect another country’s choices or constraints.

Capacity

The material basis for possible influence. FBIC measures capacity, not whether a government chooses to act on that capacity in a specific case.

What the index measures

The FBIC Index measures the capacity one state has to influence another through formal, publicly acknowledged relationships. It combines indicators across economic, political, and security dimensions to estimate bilateral influence capacity between country pairs. Users can examine individual relationships, compare regional patterns, or study broader networks of influence across the international system.

How this index can be used

Power in the international system is not only about what a country possesses internally. It also depends on relationships: trade ties, diplomatic connections, security links, and patterns of dependence. FBIC gives users a structured way to compare those relationships over time and examine how influence capacity is distributed across countries, regions, and networks.

How the data are built

Economic relationships

Trade and other economic connections that shape bilateral dependence and interaction.

Political relationships

Diplomatic exchange, shared institutional ties, and other formal political connections.

Security relationships

Military, arms, or security-related ties included in the FBIC methodology.

FBIC combines measures of bandwidth and dependence to estimate influence capacity between country pairs. The full variable list, coding rules, and calculation methods should live in the codebook.

Access and citation

Use the FBIC Index data to compare formal influence capacity between country pairs over time. The codebook provides variable definitions, source notes, and index construction details.

Collin Meisel, Caleb L. Petry, Jonathan D. Moyer, Mathew J. Burrows. “Spheres of Influence in the Coming Decades: Four Alternative Scenarios.” Stimson Center. May 25th, 2023
Collin Meisel, Jonathan D. Moyer, Mathew J. Burrows. “The US is losing the Global South: How to reverse course.” The Hill. June 13th, 2023
Collin Meisel, Caleb L. Petry, Jonathan D. Moyer, Mathew J. Burrows. “The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Is Boosting the Potential for U.S Influence Abroad” Lawfare Media. August 6th, 2023
Jonathan D. Moyer, Collin J. Meisel, Austin S. Matthews, David K. Bohl, and Mathew J. Burrows, "China-US Competition: Measuring Global Influence," Atlantic Council and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver's Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, Denver, CO, May 2021.
Jonathan D. Moyer, Tim Sweijs, Mathew J. Burrows, Hugo Van Manen, "Power and Influence in a Globalized World," Atlantic Council and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver's Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, Denver, CO, January 2018.
Austin S. Matthews and Collin Meisel. 2021. "Seeking Serenity: A New American Influence Strategy for Southeast Asia and Beyond." War on the Rocks. May 10th, 2021.
Collin Meisel, Jonathan D. Moyer, Austin S. Matthews, David K. Bohl, Mathew J. Burrows. 2021. "How the United States Can Compete with Chinese Influence in Southeast Asia." Lawfare. June 27th, 2021.
Jonathan D. Moyer, Collin J. Meisel, Austin S. Matthews, David K. Bohl, and Matthew J. Burrows. 2021. "In Brief: Fifteen takeaways from our new report measuring U.S. and Chinese global influence." Atlantic Council. June 16th, 2021.

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Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity

Quick Links

Access the index

Explore FBIC Index Data

FBIC Codebook

Index at a glance

What the index measures

How this index can be used

How the data are built

Access and citation

Help support a global community working toward a more knowable future

Stay connected with Pardee

Help support a global community working toward a more knowable future

Stay connected with Pardee

Graduate degrees

Experiential Learning

Graduate Admission

Undergraduate Admission

Student Life

News & Events

History

Media Contact Page

Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity

Quick Links

Access the index

Explore FBIC Index Data

FBIC Codebook

Index at a glance

What the index measures

How this index can be used

How the data are built

Access and citation

Related Publications

Help support a global community working toward a more knowable future

Stay connected with Pardee

Help support a global community working toward a more knowable future

Stay connected with Pardee

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