Hughes, B. B., Solórzano, J., & Rothman, D. S., Irfan, R. I., Sahadevan, D. (2025, November 11). IFs energy model documentation. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. https://pardeewiki.du.edu/index.php?title=Energy

Sahadevan, D., Irfan, M. T., Luo, C., Moyer, J. D., Mason, C., & Beynon, E. (2025). Charged for change: The case for renewable energy in climate action. UNDP; Pardee Institute for International Futures; Octopus Energy.

Carbon bargain: The energy transition will be much cheaper than you think. (2024, November 16). The Economist.

Abidoye, B., Banda, A., Baumwoll, J., Carman, R., Moz-Christofoletti, M., Orlic, E., Patterson, L. (2024). Advancing the SDG Push with equitable low-carbon pathways. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/publications/advancing-sdg-push-equitable-low-carbon-pathways

The ‘SDG Push x NDC 3.0’ research, a collaboration between UNDP and the Frederick S. Pardee Center, outlines a framework for a fair, low-carbon energy transition that considers the needs of both wealthy and lower-income nations. The report updates the second flagship publication, Leaving No One Behind: Impact of COVID-19 on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), examining an integrated set of policy strategies that accelerates climate actions while promoting human development. By supporting equitable access to energy, green investments, and digital infrastructure, it aims to foster inclusive, sustainable growth and align with the Paris Agreement targets.

The research finds that an additional 60 million people could be lifted from poverty by 2030, and upwards of 175 million people by 2050, through these ambitious, yet feasible policy choices. In addition, nine out of ten low-human development countries could make significant strides towards improving their current development outcomes by 2050 while carbon emissions are reduced by two-thirds by 2050.

Sahel Human Development Report 2023. (2024, February 15). United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/africa/publications/sahel-human-development-report-2023

Sustainable energy could regenerate Africa’s Sahelian zone by using the region’s abundant clean energy potential to transform lives, diversify economies, give hope, and protect the planet. Analyzing viable pathways to move the Sahel away from energy dependency to energy agency that delivers accessible, reliable, and affordable energy for all, is the focus of this Human Development Report, which covers Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal. The HDR uses empirical techniques and political economy analyses to consider optimal energy strategies that would be most appropriate for the sub-region and also for each country's context.

Meisel, C. (2023, October 6). Opinion: Renewables are America’s pathway to energy independence. The Colorado Sun. https://coloradosun.com/2023/10/06/renewable-energy-independence-gasoline-electricity-colorado-opinion/

There’s no better way to reduce pressure on gas prices — or take away Putin’s leverage.

Gas prices in the U.S. are at an 11-month high, reducing the purchasing power of Coloradans and bolstering stubbornly high inflation. Earlier this year, U.S. ally Japan, in a pinch for energy, has already had to negotiate an exception to the U.S.-imposed price cap on Russian oil that is meant to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end his war in Ukraine. Critical U.S. partners elsewhere in the world, such as Singapore, are also feeling pain at the pump.

Moyer, J. D. (2023, September 25). Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions. Scientific Reports, 13(1), 15996. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42782-

Degrowth advocates argue for structural transformations in how economies and societies prioritize material wealth accumulation to reduce the negative effects of future anthropogenic climate change. Degrowth proponents argue that human economic activity could be lessened, and societies transformed to prioritize improved wellbeing, reducing the threat of climate change. This paper explores implications of alternative patterns of economic growth with transformational policy pathways (i.e., redistribution) to assess what effects economic growth and broader policies have on changing patterns of human development across both the Global North and South. Using the International Futures model, this article shows that negative growth and societal transformations in the Global North are possible without dramatically damaging long-term global socioeconomic development, though these interventions do not solve the global climate crisis, reducing future cumulative carbon emissions by 10.5% through 2100. On the other hand, a global negative growth scenario will significantly reduce future cumulative carbon emissions (45%) but also dramatically undermines the pursuit of global development goals, like the elimination of poverty. Even with global policies that significantly increase cash transfers to the poor and retired, dramatically improve income inequality, and eliminate military spending, the Global Negative Growth Big Push scenario leads to an increase of 15 percentage points in global extreme poverty by 2100.

Full Citation: Sahadevan, D., Hanna, T., Moz-Christofoletti, M. A., Orlic, E., Okiya, S., Abidoye, B., & Moyer, J. D. (2023). UNDP. https://data.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke476/files/2023-11/20230606_Universal-Electrification-Research-Report.pdf

Pushing for universal electricity access through Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) interventions can have powerful multi-faceted effects across economic and human development. Despite its benefits, expanding electricity access comes with significant costs that may require trade-offs in fiscal choices. By using futures modelling that captures both synergies and trade-offs of pursuing particular SDG targets, UNDP and the Pardee Center for International Futures (University of Denver) assessed the current state of electricity access and modelled different pathways to achieving significant milestones in electricity access, including the UN-Energy Pledge and the UNDP commitments. Read the official report and others here.

Modelling Universal Access
Development Impacts of Electrification

O'Neill, Brian C. and Steve Hedden. 2018. "Xcel Energy carbon emissions targets and limiting warming to less than 2 degrees C." Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

Director of Research Brian O'Neill and former Pardee Center Lead System Administrator Steve Hedden published a report evaluating Xcel Energy's recently announced goals for carbon emissions reductions. Their findings, which are incorporated in Xcel Energy's own report outlining their goals, conclude that the company's aims of reducing emissions 80% by 2030 and delivering carbon-free electricity by 2050 are consistent with targets in the Paris Climate Agreement to limit warming to 2 degrees C or less.

Hedden, S. (2015). "Gridlocked: A long-term look at South Africa's electricity sector." Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Denver.

Electricity generation in South Africa is changing, but whether the electricity grid will be able to adapt to these changes is uncertain. This paper presents an alternative frame for the current electricity challenges by focusing on the electricity grid. Using the International Futures forecasting model, the African Futures Project has built three scenarios to 2050 to inform policymakers of the long-term implications of grid decisions. With coordinated planning, improved operational strategies and coherent policies, renewable energy can contribute significantly to the energy mix by 2050, help increase economic growth and benefit all South Africans. These interventions, however, will only be successful if there is a clear plan for the structure of the electricity sector.