What America's demographic future means for Africa and Europe

Collin Meisel. (2026, June 11). What America's demographic future means for Africa and Europe. Megatrends Afrika Spotlight No. 71. https://www.megatrends-afrika.de/en/publication/mta-spotlight-71-us-demographic-decline-could-reshape-the-global-balance-of-power

Demographic shifts in the United States could reshape its relationships with Africa and Europe over the coming decades. Using the International Futures (IFs) model developed by the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, the piece explores how lower immigration could slow U.S. population growth, weaken the labor force, and reduce long-term economic and geopolitical influence. It also considers how these demographic changes could affect the balance of global power and opportunities for cooperation between regions. By modeling alternative long-term scenarios rather than making fixed predictions, IFs help policymakers better understand the trade-offs and potential consequences of today's policy decisions.