Pardee Institute’s FBIC maps foreign influence in Syria, aiding Modern War Institute’s post-Assad analysis

By: Wara Irfan

A recent article published by the Modern War Institute at West Point analyzes how longstanding foreign actors will navigate Syria’s geopolitical landscape following the fall of Assad. It cites the Pardee Institute’s Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) Index data to identify major foreign actors and track the trajectory of their influence in Syria since the 1960s.   

Written shortly after Assad’s fall, Assad’s Downfall in Syria: Who Wins and Who Loses? highlights, using FBIC data, the regional uncertainties and forecast potential winners and losers of Syrian regime change by examining the last 80 years of foreign influence exerted on Syria by major actors like Russia, Turkey, China, Iran, the United States, Europe (particularly through the activities of France), and Israel.  

The FBIC Index measures formal relational power between countries across economic, political, and security dimensions, focusing on state-sanctioned interactions like diplomatic exchange and trade. Developed by the Diplometrics Program, it helps quantify global power dynamics and informs the International Futures (IFs) model, aids researchers and U.S. policymakers in assessing global power shifts.

Credit: Modern War Institute at West Point

The authors’ analysis of FBIC data suggests that Iran and Russia’s influence in Syria will likely continue to decline in a post-Assad era. Meanwhile, Turkey, which supports the Syrian National Army against both Assad and the Kurds, views this as an opportunity to expand its influence. FBIC data shows that Turkey’s capacity has grown over the past two decades and can see the regime change as an opportunity to continue countering perceived threats from the Syrian Kurds. 

Furthermore, FBIC data reveals that U.S. influence in Syria began declining around the mid-2010s. While the U.S. still maintains approximately 900 troops at the al-Tanf garrison near the Iraqi and Jordanian borders to counter ISIS and Iran-backed militias, the future of this key outpost remains uncertain, as President Trump may choose to shut it down.  

Modern War Institute at West Point—a leading research hub dedicated to the study of contemporary warfare—highlights the significance of the Pardee Institute’s FBIC data in analyzing global dynamics. This index not only informs strategic analysis but also shapes discourse surrounding bilateral relationships between nation-states.