Africa’s changing place in the world: Pardee joins futures discussions in South Africa

Africa’s population is growing as Europe’s ages. But demographic growth alone does not determine who gains economic strength or a greater say in international affairs. Investment in people, relationships between countries, and the ability to act collectively help shape how those changes translate into influence.  

This October, Pardee Institute colleagues Collin Meisel, director of analysis, and Taylor Hanna, director of research development, brought those questions to the 2026 African Futures Conference and related activities with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). Held Oct. 13–14 in Pretoria and online, the conference brought together researchers, policymakers, practitioners, and others under the theme “From Data to Decisions” to examine Africa’s possible futures and the choices that could shape them.  

The visit built on more than 15 years of collaboration in which ISS and the Pardee Institute have used the International Futures (IFs) platform to examine Africa’s development pathways and compare alternative scenarios. 

Meisel chaired the conference session on security, geopolitics, and regional stability and presented on what a changing international order could mean for Africa. His related research with ISS examines the building blocks of power (economic, demographic, technological, and military capabilities) and how they could shift through the midcentury. The analysis points to growing capabilities among African countries, while showing that population growth must translate into productivity and geopolitical leverage to expand their international influence. It also highlights a parallel challenge for Europe: its collective resources carry different weights depending on whether its countries act together. 

Those questions also framed the Future of African-European Relations project, which Pardee supported through ISS. The visit marked the project’s capstone, with Meisel joining a delegation involving the Hanns Seidel Foundation and German think tanks for meetings and research discussions. His contributions included analyses of America’s demographic future and Africa and Europe’s positions in a changing global order. These examine how choices about migration, trade, and cooperation could alter countries’ future power and relationships. 

At the conference, Hanna led a Futures Lab, “From Current Path to Policy Choices,” as part of the program on making decisions under uncertainty. The session introduced participants to using IFs in practice by changing assumptions and comparing scenarios to see how different choices could affect outcomes across interacting human, social, and natural systems. 

Following the conference, Hanna spent two days in meetings and training with ISS’s African Futures and Innovation team. She also shared Pardee’s Strategic Forecasting with IFs training program during the visit. Some participants have since enrolled and begun working through it to build their ability to run these analyses themselves.