What happens when the US population peaks?

Meisel, C. (2026, May 11). What happens when the US population peaks? The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/5868017-shrinking-us-population-trends/

In a new opinion piece for The Hill, Collin Meisel, director of analysis at the Pardee Institute, examines a fast-approaching demographic challenge: Without net immigration, the U.S. population will shrink.

Drawing on scenario analysis using International Futures (IFs), Meisel argues that population-shrinking immigration policies could weaken the economic foundation of U.S. national power, making it easier for China to challenge U.S. primacy by mid-century. Fewer people — especially fewer young workers — means less economic activity, slower growth and a weaker foundation for long-term national power. While productivity gains from tools such as artificial intelligence could help offset some losses, Meisel notes that those gains are unlikely to restore U.S. advantage if other countries benefit from similar advances.

Immigration, in this framing, is more than a domestic policy issue. It is a strategic variable shaping the future of U.S. economic strength and geopolitical influence.