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Frederick S. Pardee
Institute for International Futures
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Working Papers

From time to time, analytic working papers are generated to explore selected aspects of the International Futures (IFs) modeling system. Some are used to test aspects of the model, while others become foundations for larger research efforts and writing projects. Many evolve over time, so it is important to note working paper numbers and dates when using and citing the papers.

July 25, 2025

Navigating the future: Four scenarios assessing child well-being in the twenty-first century

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Moyer, J. Sahadevan, D. (2024). Navigating the future: Four scenarios assessing child well-being in the twenty-first century. UNICEF. https://www.unicef.org/innocenti/media/10201/file/UNICEF-Innocenti-Navigating-Future-discussion-paper-2024.pdf.pdf

May 21, 2025

International Futures (IFs) Country Groupings

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Kwasi, S., Stone, B., Nawar, S. 2025. "International Futures (IFs) Country Groupings." Working paper 2025.02.26. Pardee Institute for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of […]

October 4, 2019

Forum on Scenarios of Climate and Societal Futures: Meeting Report

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O’Neill, B.C., Conde, C., Ebi, K., Friedlingstein, P., Fuglestvedt, J., Hasegawa, T., Kok, K., Kriegler, E., Monteith, S., Pichs-Madruga, R., Preston, B., Sillman, J., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D. […]

January 1, 2018

A “Middle-of-the-Road” Projection of Human Development Using Shared Socio-Economic Pathway 2 in International Futures

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Moyer, Jonathan D., and Steve Hedden, 2018. "A “Middle-of-the-Road” Projection of Human Development Using Shared Socio-Economic Pathway 2 in International Futures." Working paper September 2018. Pardee Center for International Futures, […]

December 1, 2017

Appendix to Interdependence and Power in a Globalized World

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Jonathan D. Moyer, Tim Sweijs, Matt Burrows and Hugo Van Manen, 2017. "Appendix to Interdependence and Power in a Globalized World." Working paper December 2017. Pardee Center for International Futures, […]

August 3, 2009

Economic Futures and Their Implications for Global Development: The Unfolding of the Great Recession

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Hughes, Barry B. 2009. "Economic Futures and Their Implications for Global Development: The Unfolding of the Great Recession." Working paper 2009.08.03. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of […]

January 1, 2008

Three Paths for Achieving Sustainable Human Development: Assessing Trade-Offs

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Jonathan D. Moyer and David K. Bohl, 2018. "Three Paths for Achieving Sustainable Human Development: Assessing Trade-Offs." Working paper September 2018. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of […]

December 31, 2007

Forecasting Global Economic Growth with Endogenous Multifactor Productivity: The International Futures (IFs) Approach

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Hughes, Barry B. 2007. "Forecasting Global Economic Growth with Endogenous Multifactor Productivity: The International Futures (IFs) Approach." Working paper 2007.12.31. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global […]

July 18, 2006

UNEP GEO4 Driver Scenarios Using IFS with Pardee

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Hughes, Barry B. 2006. "UNEP GEO4 Driver Scenarios Using IFS with Pardee." Working paper 2006.07.18. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of […]

June 20, 2006

Assessing the Credibility of Forecasts using International Futures (IFs): Verification and Validation

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Hughes, Barry B. 2006. "Assessing the Credibility of Forecasts using International Futures (IFs): Verification and Validation." Working paper 2006.06.20. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and […]

December 12, 2005

Scenario Analysis with International Futures

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Hughes, Barry B. 2005. "Scenario Analysis with International Futures." Working paper 2005.12.12. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver, Denver, CO.

April 17, 2004

The Base Case of International Futures (IFs): Comparison with Other Forecasts

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Hughes, Barry B. 2004. "The Base Case of International Futures (IFs): Comparison with Other Forecasts." Working papers 2004.04.17. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public […]

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