Global survey points to a gap between scenario use and perceived plausibility

Early results from a global survey suggest a disconnect between the socioeconomic scenarios researchers commonly use, and those respondents consider most reflective of today’s world. 

Climate and development researchers lean heavily on a small set of scenarios to explore the decades ahead. Early results from a global survey suggest that many people who build and use those scenarios see today's world reflected in different ones. 

Pardee Institute Director Jonathan Moyer shared those results at the 2026 Bath Conference on Earth System Governance, held September 7–11 at the University of Bath in England with the Earth System Governance Project. His presentation, "How might global socio-ecological change scenarios break out of silos?," was co-authored with Vanessa Schweizer (University of Waterloo), Bas van Ruijven (IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis), and Ethan Sullivan (University of Denver). 

The Scenario Evolution Process 

The findings come from the Scenario Evolution Process (SEP), a global, community-led initiative to evaluate and update the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Widely used in climate research, the SSPs describe alternative ways societies and economies could evolve this century. Pardee's role in the SEP is both technical and convening. The Institute hosts the SEP website, co-chairs its Orchestration Working Group, and leads the global survey, which gathers input from people who produce scenarios and people who use scenario-based information in research and decision-making. 

What the survey found

Moyer’s presentation identified limits in the current SSP framework, including outdated baselines that assume no new climate policies and limited attention to how environmental change and inequality can feed back into social and economic pathways.

Initial survey results point to a gap between practice and perception. Respondents viewed the pathways characterized by regional rivalry (SSP3) and deepening inequality (SSP4) the most plausible descriptions of today’s world. Researchers, meanwhile, continue to rely heavily on the sustainability-focused (SSP1) and “middle of the road” (SSP2) pathways. And 60.2% of respondents said the SSPs’ traditional framework for comparing the challenges of cutting emissions and adapting to climate impacts is no longer sufficient for their work.

These initial findings reflect respondents’ judgments, rather than a forecast of the world’s direction. They raise questions about how researchers select scenarios and whether the existing framework captures the conditions and questions users need to examine.

Three priorities for the next generation

Moyer outlined three priorities: pathways linked to 2035 and 2050 milestones; greater attention to environmental conditions and inequalities; and scenario development that incorporates regional and national perspectives, including priorities from the Global South.

Get involved

Learn more about the Scenario Evolution Process and follow upcoming survey results at the SEP website.