Is Newsom in Trouble?

The conventional wisdom is that Governor Gavin Newsom’s recall had failed to attract sufficient support or even interest to remove him. He got an election date in mid-September assuming his popularity would be stronger than waiting longer, and importantly, he kept other Democrats off the ballot. In fact, the field has no one with any statewide popularity – Republican, independent or celebrity. Democrats had been able to label the recall a Republican-Trump strategy – deadly in a state with nearly two-to-one Democrat and Donald Trump lost by 29 points.

But a statewide poll from July 20 shows the recall has tightened from the mid-30 percent in earlier polls to 43 percent, with 48 percent against the recall in the new Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll.

None of the candidates on the recall ballot have significant support. Over half the electorate is undecided (53%), 16 percent list Larry Elder, a conservative radio host. Top Republicans John Cox and Kevin Faulconer received 6 percent each and reality TV start, Caitlyn Jenner, received 4 percent

Newsom’s primary concern is to get his voters to return ballots.