Highway or Byway: South Africa's NDP 2030 Vision

Cilliers, J. and Camp, H. (2013). “Highway or Byway? The National Development Plan 2030.”

African Futures Paper No. 6. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

This paper uses the International Futures modeling system to explore the feasibility of the central economic growth target in South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. The authors conclude that the growth target (5.4% average annual growth in GDP) and an associated income per capita target are both very ambitious and will require a huge effort, clear leadership, and painful adjustments if they are to be achieved. They point out that other important targets in the Plan, such as in education and infrastructure, are achievable with lower rates of economic growth.