Malaria No More: Expectations for Eradication

Moyer, J.D. and Emde, G. (2012). “Malaria No More: Expectations for Eradication.”

African Futures Brief No. 5. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

By comparing a Base Case with a Malaria Eradication scenario, this brief uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore the possible cumulative impacts by 2050 if Africa were able to eliminate malarial infection by 2025. Beneficial impacts are forecast in terms of deaths averted, years of healthy life added, increased overall economic output, increased per capita income, and reduced poverty.