Potential Paths of Human Development in the Western Cape to 2040

Moyer, J. D., Neill, C. and Rafa, M. (2013). “Potential Paths of Human Development in the Western Cape to 2040.”

FuturesCape Policy Brief 1 of 2013. Western Cape Government Policy and Strategy Chief Directorate and Strategic Initiatives Chief Directorate in collaboration with the African Futures Project. Western Cape Government, Cape Town, South Africa.

This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore potential paths of human development in South Africa's Western Cape to the year 2040. The Human Development Index (HDI), with its tripartite use of life expectancy, education level, and per capita income, is used as the measure of human development. The authors note that human development has recently increased in the Western Cape Province, following an earlier modest decline due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. A Base Case analysis projects further significant gains over the course of the forecast period, and an alternate scenario with aggressive but reasonable interventions suggests how those gains might be even larger.