Toward a “mini-polar” future: where do Africa and Europe stand?

Citation: Meisel, C. (2026, August 26). Toward a “mini-polar” future: Where do Africa and Europe stand? Federation of German Industries. https://bdi.eu/en/articles/internationales/toward-a-mini-polar-future-where-do-africa-and-europe-stand

Abstract:

We published this article as part of The Future of African-European Relations project, a collaboration among BDI, the Institute for Security Studies, the Hanns Seidel Foundation, and the Megatrends Afrika consortium. In “ Toward a ‘mini-polar’ future: where do Africa and Europe stand?” Collin uses International Futures (IFs) forecasts to examine how global power may shift by 2050, with the United States and China remaining the two largest poles while the EU and India retain enough weight to influence outcomes in key regions and issue areas.

The article argues that Africa’s demographic and economic rise will give many African states greater room to shape partnerships, even if no individual African country or the African Union is likely to become a full “mini-pole” by 2050. For Europe and Africa, the strategic question centers on how today’s policy choices on trade, migration, governance, security, and partnership will define whether a more diffuse global order leads to cooperation or rivalry.