Foreign Affairs essay uses IFs to examine Africa's demographic opportunity

Africa’s economic prospects depend partly on a demographic shift: a growing share of working-age adults relative to children and older dependents. In a new Foreign Affairs essay, Jakkie Cilliers, who founded the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and has spent decades studying Africa’s long-term development, argues that policy choices today will shape when that shift translates into faster growth. 

In "Africa Can't Afford to Squander Its Demographic Opportunity," Cilliers makes that case with analysis from International Futures (IFs), the Pardee Institute's open-source, integrated forecasting platform. Cilliers heads the ISS African Futures program in Pretoria, South Africa, which has partnered with Pardee since 2010 and uses IFs to analyze development across all 55 African countries. The essay is adapted from his book Africa's Road to Prosperity: 10 Things to Know. 

What the IFs analysis shows 

Citing IFs for his analysis, Cilliers identifies a ratio of at least 1.7 working-age people per dependent as a favorable condition for faster economic growth. Africa’s continental average today is about 1.4. IFs forecasts put Africa at that threshold around 2053, with northern and southern Africa and several island states reaching it much earlier. With the right policies, the forecasts suggest the window could be brought forward by about a decade. 

Cilliers’ book is grounded in the realization that this opportunity depends on policy choices made today, many of which take decades to pay off. Better child survival and girls’ education can contribute to declining fertility, gradually raising the share of working-age adults. Education, health care, and employment opportunities then help determine whether that shift produces higher incomes.