Population Futures: Revisiting South Africa's National Development Plan 2030

Go, A., Moyer, J.D., Rafa, M. and Schünemann, J. (2013). “Population Futures: Revisiting South Africa’s National Development Plan 2030.”

African Futures Paper No. 7. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

This analysis explores South Africa’s fertility, mortality and migration outlooks, with a particular emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding migration. Using the International Futures (IFs) model and data from the South African 2011 National Census, three potential population futures are simulated and then compared to the projections in South Africa's National Development Plan 2030. According to our mid-range forecasts, by 2030 South Africa’s population is projected to increase to between 64.4 and 68.8 million depending on declining, stable, or increasing rates of in-migration.