Guiné-Bissau: IFs Case Study (Alternative Futures of Development in Guinea-Bissau)

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This project explores alternative futures of development in Guinea-Bissau focusing on how green growth can be an engine of progress for inclusive and sustainable long-term economic and human development. Guinea-Bissau is currently one of the least developed countries in the world, ranking 178th out of 189 countries on the Human Development Index (2019). Together, with UNDP Guinea-Bissau, this project explores current development trends and alternative green growth and human development trajectories to 2040. Learn more about each report below.

  • Report 1: Exploring alternative development futures: Economic and human development trends by 2040 — In this report, we explore long-term projections on human and economic development for Guinea-Bissau. These projections are important in that they quantify the challenges associated with achieving the SDG and provide a baseline for testing alternative policy strategies. First, we use existing literature and data to assess the current development at the national level in Guinea-Bissau. We then use this information to build scenarios that project development by 2040, using the International Futures model (Section 3). Finally, we quantified development indicators for Guinea-Bissau in 2040 (Section 4).


  • Report 2: Exploring Alternative Futures of Development - The Cost of Not Going Green -- In this report we quantify the cost of not going green for Guinea-Bissau through 2040. Specifically, we focus on exploring the benefits and costs associated with alternative scenarios in which Guinea-Bissau can reach ambitious and achievable progress on education, governance, and infrastructure. This progress is required for a successful implementation of a green growth strategy. In addition, we quantify the benefits of a strategy aimed at building a green economy with progress in agriculture, fisheries, eco-tourism, and the energy sector. We quantify the costs and benefits of each of these scenarios for SDG achievement across poverty, food security, education, economic prosperity and infrastructure. 

Using IFs

Here you can find the two IFs version used to produce the reports on Guinea-Bissau. In the report you can find detailed instructions to run all the scenarios.

To learn more about the International Futures model that was used to inform this project visit our Portuguese IFs page. If you have any more questions about the Guinea-Bissau report or about the IFs model please feel free to contact us.

This project is a result of the colaboration between Programa de Desenvolvimento das Nações Unidas (PNUD) da Guiné-Bissau and the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.