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New study on South Africa’s population to be released this month

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Pardee Institute for International Futures

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With funding support from the Hanns Seidel Foundation, the Pardee Center and the ISS have produced a new brief on South Africa’s population. According to the report’s authors, which include Pardee Center Associate Director Jonathan Moyer and Research Assistants Mickey Rafa and Ara Go, as well as the ISS’s Senior Researcher Julia Schuenemann, migration is a key uncertainty driving changes in South Africa's population. According to the IFs Base Case, which diverges from previous national estimates by forecasting a continuation of net migration into the country, South Africa may have 66 million people by 2030—eight million more than is forecast by the South African National Planning Commission. At the provincial level, the Base Case forecasts that the Western Cape and Gauteng provinces could double in population by 2050. The report will be available for download on the International Futures website later this month.