Only Time Will Determine Syria's Fate

“Lenin’s entry into Russia is successful. He is working exactly as we would wish,” wrote a German Foreign Ministry official after Lenin, a Bolshevik revolutionary, arrived in St. Petersburg. Yet the state that emerged from the Bolshevik revolution, the Soviet Union, would prove essential in defeating Germany two short decades later. 

In a commentary with the Modern War Institute at West Point, Collin J. Meisel, acting director of analysis at the Pardee Institute, discusses how political events sometimes boomerang in ways that are difficult to anticipate. The German government’s backing of Lenin’s infiltration into Russia during World War I guaranteed Russia’s permanent exit from the war but also contributed to Germany’s later defeat at the hands of the Soviet Union, according to Meisel. 

As Meisel highlights, “History is replete with short-term victories that have evolved into long-term losses.” In light of the recent fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Meisel counsels caution.  

While Syrians are understandably celebrating in the streets after decades of the Assad regime’s infamous brutality, only time will tell if the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which the United States designates a terrorist organization, will usher in a more peaceful and moderate era for Syria. Meisel says, “We should not mourn Assad’s fate. Nor should we call out the marching bands, at least not yet.”  

The Modern War Institute serves as an intellectual resource for solving military problems and provides a forum for professionals to share opinions and cultivate ideas. Acting Director of Analysis Collin Meisel has a background in strategic and data-based geopolitical analysis from his work at the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures. Similar to the Modern War Institute, the Pardee Institute endeavors to build knowledge and tools to help policymakers and academics plan for the future. 

Read the full article at the Modern War Institute.