UNDP and Pardee Institute Report on Advancing the SDG Push with Equitable Low-Carbon Pathways Reports Launched at COP29

The UNDP launched a new report co-authored by the Pardee Institute, Advancing the SDG Push with Equitable Low-Carbon Pathways, at the 29th session of the Conference of Parties (COP 29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 

Delegates of COP29 gathered this year to discuss climate finance, grappling with the urgent need to fund clean energy and mitigate climate change impacts in developing countries. The report outlines a coordinated and dedicated policy response to advancing sustainable development and eradicating poverty. Its inclusion at COP29 reaches key country and regional decision-makers and thought leaders among the attendees, amplifying the report’s potential to capitalize on new climate action initiatives.   

This report uses the Pardee Institute’s International Futures (IFs) model to explore an integrated development scenario, the SDG Push 3.0. The IFs model generates long-term projections for socioeconomic and environmental indicators, helping policymakers and researchers forecast future outcomes from current development efforts. The SDG Push scenario, originally developed in 2021 in a project led by Pardee founder Dr. Barry Hughes and recently published in Sustainability, simulates an accelerated integrated global push toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDG Push has become a flagship initiative within UNDP, helping to map out transformative futures and outline how key investments can improve human lives and development globally. SDG Push 3.0 builds on this work by elaborating a framework for a just and equitable transition to a low-carbon society.

SDG Push 3.0 prioritizes fairness, particularly for those dependent on fossil fuels, while advancing sustainable development goals. It follows general principles of low-carbon pathways relating to energy use, energy efficiency, and renewable energy technology. It advocates for an increase in energy efficiency for high-income nations and an increase in energy demand for low-income nations and addresses current inequities regarding per capita energy consumption. 

The UNDP report compares likely outcomes under SDG Push 3.0 against the baseline Current Path scenario developed by the Pardee Institute. The Current Path is designed to demonstrate the “most likely path forward” or “business as usual.” 

The authors found that SDG Push 3.0 shows that these coordinated actions can lift 60 million people out of poverty by 2030, compared with the Current Path, and 175 million by 2050, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Improvements in health and education outcomes close the stark gap in global human development outcomes. At the same time, energy and environmental interventions will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use by 65% by 2050. The report concludes that coordinated approaches to climate and development policies, like SDG Push 3.0, can reduce inequality, promote sustainable growth, and keep global temperature rise within safe limits. It calls on countries to act quickly, update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and work together to ensure fair transitions. 

This collaboration between UNDP and the Pardee Institute provides an opportunity for the institute to showcase the real-world application of its modeling tools in addressing global challenges like climate change, poverty, and inequality. Using the IF’s existing projections, the report reveals a new potential path towards a more sustainable world with hopes of being picked up by actionable stakeholders at COP29. The full report and interactive findings are available online.