Skip to Content

Scenario Surveillance Analysis

July 01, 2020

Ukraine’s recent past has been marked by an array of contrary events and trends, including civil re-awakening and persistent corruption, democratic reform and constitutional crises, societal reconciliation and violent conflict. In light of these counter-balancing phenomena, it is difficult to assess whether optimism, pessimism, or some degree of middling realism is warranted when attempting to determine where Ukraine is plausibly headed next. 

In 2020, the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures partnered with EnCompass LLC to support the USAID Ukraine Monitoring and Learning Support activity. This effort uses the Pardee Center’s International Futures tool to quantitatively model scenarios meant to assess Ukraine’s progress toward USAID/Ukraine’s 2019-2024 Country Development Cooperation Strategy Development Objectives. Each year, Pardee researchers will update their scenario analysis, seeking to reflect the impact of recent developments. Additionally, the Pardee team will provide interim analyses and guidance on how to incorporate systems thinking into USAID/Ukraine’s long-term planning.