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“Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty”

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Publishing Body

World Development

Owning Unit(s)
Pardee Center for International Futures L
Associated Unit(s)

Journal Article

February 02, 2023

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Using IFs to better understand conflict and development dynamics

A new publication uses the International Futures Platform to forecast 12 scenarios that forecast the number of people in 179 countries who will live in poverty due to intrastate conflict in 2030, 2050 and 2070. Findings show that a baseline conflict scenario leads to an additional 148.2 million people living in extreme poverty due to conflict by 2030 compared with a scenario where conflict is eliminated starting in 2022.  These conflict-attributable poor represent 20.1% of the population in extreme poverty at that time, with the majority living in South Asia followed by Africa. By 2050 the population living in conflict-attributable poverty increases to 164.9 million, representing 32.7% of the total extremely poor population at that time with the majority living in Africa.  

Keywords: Pardee Center