A double-edged sword into a plowshare: Analyzing geopolitical implications of alternative socioeconomic development pathways

The summary discusses global challenges to sustainable development, emphasizing the need to balance human development, climate change, and geopolitics. It focuses on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs),which are scenarios used in climate research to address adaptation and mitigation challenges. Using the International Futures model, the study examines the implications of alternative socioeconomic development on the future distribution of national power and international relations. The findings suggest that a sustainable development pathway may lead to geopolitical destabilization, causing transitions in regional and global power. The paper highlights the importance of integrating international relations drivers into SSPs and urges policymakers to consider both promoting sustainable development and addressing implications for geopolitical development.