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Measuring and Forecasting the Rise of China: Reality over Image

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Pardee Center for International Futures
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Journal Article

May 10, 2022

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This journal article presents a new multidimensional measure of relative national capabilities and forecasts using the International Futures model across 29 alternative scenarios.

In this article published in the Journal of Contemporary China, Assistant Professor and Pardee Center Director Dr. Jonathan Moyer, Pardee Center senior research associate Collin Meisel, and former Pardee Center research scientist Dr. Austin Matthews find that Chinese capabilities surpass the United States in 26 scenarios before 2060, with the most frequent period of power transition being the early 2040s. This analysis offers an opportunity for leaders to reconcile national images with reality, potentially reducing the risk of conflict associated with great power transition. 

Keywords: Pardee Center
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