Power and Influence in Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa

African Futures Paper No. 14. Institute for Security Studies and Drederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

Using the International Futures modeling system, this paper explores the changing power capabilities of Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa (the"Big Five") over the next 25 years. Ethiopia and Nigeria are forecast to increase their power capabilities, whereas Algeria, Egypt and South Africa are expected to stagnate or decline. Two of the Big Five countries currently punch above their weight--one that is rising, Ethiopia, and another, South Africa, whose growth is stagnant. If Nigeria were able to take the necessary steps to realize far-reaching changes to the governance issues and social challenges that currently beset the country, it could become Africa’s lone superpower.