Prospects for Africa's 26 Fragile Countries

African Futures Paper No. 8. Institute for Security Studies and Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. Pretoria, South Africa, and Denver, CO, USA.

Africa is witnessing strong and sustained high levels of economic growth and an overall reduction in conflict across the continent. New natural resource exploitation, growing urbanisation, and progress in human development goals, such as education and health, generally suggest that the African Renaissance rhetoric is being met with reality. However, the countries still experiencing conflict are caught in a vicious cycle of violence, chronic poverty, inequality, and exclusion from the gains of growth. Exploration of the prospects for these 26 countries shows them to be on a slower trajectory to long-term peace and development, and 10 are forecast to remain fragile throughout the forecast period of this paper (2050).