Mohammod Irfan Presents Forthcoming Research Paper on Bangladesh's Future Development
Mohammod Irfan, a senior scientist at the Pardee Institute, presented research on Bangladesh's future development at the 2024 Bangladesh Development Initiatives (BDI) conference last month. This research is titled "Bangladesh at a Critical Juncture: Alternative Pathways to Address the Triple Challenges." It uses the International Futures (IFs) model to explore different scenarios for Bangladesh's future, highlighting the critical impact of policy choices. The BDI is an organization dedicated to supporting development initiatives in Bangladesh through research, advocacy, and collaboration.
Irfan’s presentation began with a discussion about the current state of human development in Bangladesh using the Human Development Index (HDI). The HDI is a “summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human development,” mainly focusing on living standards. Irfan’s presentation highlights Bangladesh's impressive improvement in HDI relative to the other countries in the region since before the COVID-19 pandemic, noting its 1.66% average annual HDI growth over the last twenty years and its HDI rank of 128.
Irfan introduced IFs as a tool for integrated analysis of Bangladeshi developmental issues, modeling three potential scenarios: Political Stability, Shared Prosperity, and Save the Planet. A combined path includes all three and is titled Pathways to Progress. According to his research using the IFs tool, a combined scenario of increased Political Stability, Shared Prosperity, and environmental sustainability forecasts an increase in life expectancy, years in education, and income, thus boosting the HDI in Bangladesh through the year 2075. The combined approach forecasts an increase in emissions from fossil fuels until 2060, followed by a dramatic decrease. The increase in emissions is minimal compared to the overall level of global emissions.
Irfan’s research stresses the importance of good governance, democracy, and political stability in Bangladesh as it plans for its future. The research also suggests that Bangladesh can attain prosperity without adding much to global emissions and attain a much lower emission level in the latter half of the century. The presentation advocates for a comprehensive and integrated approach to addressing Bangladesh's challenges and achieving sustainable development, emphasizing the role of international cooperation and highlighting the need for inclusive economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction to promote prosperity and an increase in HDI.
Mohammod Irfan's research uses the International Futures (IFs) tool to forecast carbon emissions in Bangladesh with various scenarios.